Future visioning is a participatory process we share with our custodians to consider integrating into their climate risk assessment and adaptation planning. Through a variety of methodologies and tools, it can help stakeholders to imagine potential futures and how we might respond and plan for them. As our team continuously expands our practice with future visioning, we wanted to share some key takeaways from our Director of Science, Dr. Salma Sabour, of this impressive literature review on moving from short‑term planning to long‑term strategy for adaptation:

• Diversify the scenario types: Instead of solely focusing on what will happen (predictive) or what could happen (exploratory), the literature suggests using normative scenarios more deliberately—starting with “what should happen?” to unlock more transformative, outside‑the‑box options.

• Bring a broader set of voices into the room: In line with our plural knowledge approach, visioning shouldn’t be limited to institutional decision-makers. It is important to include community members, youth, and Indigenous knowledge holders. It is also important to actively design for power dynamics so that participation is meaningful—not symbolic.

• Blend evidence with imagination: Strong visioning combines top‑down quantitative inputs (e.g., climate projections) with bottom‑up qualitative methods (e.g., storytelling, mapping, sketching). Using visual tools (2D maps, simple 3D models) and anchoring the work in a specific place makes futures more concrete and actionable.

• Build futures literacy up front: Don’t assume shared comfort with climate concepts or long-horizon thinking. A key enabler is setting a baseline—shared definitions, context, and a common language—before the exercise begins.

• Choose the time horizon carefully: Looking 20+ years ahead is common, but very distant horizons can become abstract or anxiety‑provoking. Calibrate the horizon to the audience and the decisions you need to inform.

• Stay reflexive and evaluate impact: Be explicit about assumptions and biases in how we frame futures. Also evaluate outcomes: did the process shift mindsets and expand options, or did it unintentionally amplify “climate worry” without improving decision readiness?

We also love this analogy they shared: 

"Think of future visioning as navigating a ship through a foggy sea. Predictive scenarios are the radar, showing where the rocks are likely to be. Explorative scenarios are the different charts showing various routes you might take. Normative visioning is the North Star, providing the desired destination that guides every turn of the wheel today. Best practices ensure that everyone on the crew, not just the captain, has a say in where that destination should be and understands how to read the instruments."

We'd love to hear from you! How have you used future visioning? What pointers do you have? Contact us

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Source: Nalau, J. & Cobb, G. (2022). The strengths and weaknesses of future visioning approaches for climate change adaptation: A review. Global Environmental Change.