Methodology

As part of the Preserving Legacies cohort program, two climate custodians from Petra conducted a participatory, values-based climate risk assessment to better understand how climate change impacts the site so that they can implement effective adaptation solutions.

From March to June 2023, they engaged experts and local stakeholders—including heritage professionals, tourism workers, business owners, and community members—through a series of three focus groups, a three-day workshop, and a validation survey.

Participants collaborated to:

• Identify priority values associated with Petra.
• Downscale and analyze climate data specific to the local region under a "middle of the road" emissions scenario (RCP 4.5) projecting to 2060.
• Document local experiences of climate change.
• Identify social and economic vulnerabilities of the site and its communities.
• Evaluate the capacity of the site and its communities to adapt. 
• Assess how climate hazards impact Petra’s most important values.
• Determine Petra’s level of risk, taking into account all of the previous factors.
• Recommend sustainable and culturally appropriate strategies for adaptation and mitigation.

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Key Values & Attributes of Petra

The assessment revealed that while Petra’s heritage values associated with its designation as a World Heritage property are important to its community, additional values hold just as much importance. These include:

• Economic values tied to agriculture and tourism
• Historical and archaeological values of the monuments and landscape
• Natural values of Petra’s ecosystem and biodiversity

These values are represented by a wide range of features or attributes such as its ancient terraces, cultivated fields, historical monuments, archaeological remains, native plants, and local wildlife.

Current & Future Climate Impacts

Jordan is already feeling the effects of climate change—extreme heat, prolonged drought, flash floods, storms, and landslides—all of which are expected to intensify in the coming decades.

By 2060, under a moderate emissions scenario (RCP 4.5), the assessment projects that Petra will face several major climate-related threats. The most significant being:

• Flash floods, worsened by dry soils that can no longer absorb water from increased participation.
• Drought, intensified by higher temperatures, irregular rainfall, and the inability of drier soils to absorb moisture.‍
• Sandstorms, fueled by increased and more erratic wind and storm activity, and intensified by increasingly arid conditions.

Community members documented their firsthand experience of these changes, humanizing its impact:

• Traditional apple and citrus trees are struggling, and many farmers now cultivate more heat-tolerant crops like lemon, orange, and guava. 
• When rain falls, it is more intense—often within an hour rather than over a full day. 
• Snow, once common during spring harvests of barley and wheat, has become more rare.
• Instead of migrating biannually, people remain in place and rely more on air conditioning to manage heat, signaling a shift away from long-standing traditions and ways of life.

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Vulnerabilities & Adaptive Capacities

Climate risk is a dynamic interaction between climate hazards and the values prioritized by participants. The degree of risk is determined by their sensitivity and exposure, systemic vulnerability, and adaptive capacities. 

The most significant vulnerabilities identified included:

• Over-tourism, which increases wear on the monuments, the risk to human life during flash floods, and in Wadi Rum, increases pressure on already stretched water resources.
• Poor planning and lack of infrastructure maintenance, which negatively impacted draining and has led to a decrease in the amount of water in traditional wells. 
• Changes in land use such as the adoption of modern ploughing techniques, overgrazing by livestock, and deforestation have degraded the natural landscape, reducing its ability to retain water and increasing vulnerability to drought, erosion, and storm damage.

Adaptive efforts under way that are enhancing Petra’s resilience include:  

• Implementation of Jordan’s 2022–2050 National Climate Change Adaptation Plan, which includes a specific adaptation goal for cultural heritage and is being championed by partners like Petra Development and Tourism Regional Authority (PDTRA) and Petra National Trust (PNT). 
• Construction of the Wadi Musa water reuse treatment plant, reducing tourism-related water stress and easing pressure on agriculture and the local community.
• Flood management infrastructure, including strategically placed barriers and annual maintenance of cisterns, dams, and canals to manage water flow and reduce flash flood risk.
• Afforestation and landscape restoration using native vegetation to conserve soil, retain water, and reduce the impacts of drought, precipitation, and wind erosion.
• Continuous development of the early warning system, launched in 2014, to improve responsiveness to climate-related hazards.

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‍‍Case Study: Reviving the Ancient Ingenuity of Petra’s Nabataean Water Systems ‍

In Petra, Jordan, centuries-old wisdom is shaping modern climate resilience. By restoring the Nabataean water management system—terraces, dams, cisterns, and channels—Petra is dramatically reducing flood risk while preserving its heritage. Strategic interventions like rebuilding retaining walls and clearing waterways have helped redirect flash floods along natural paths, safeguarding both archaeological treasures and local lives. This blend of ancient innovation and modern stewardship is a standout example of heritage-driven climate adaptation.

‍Assessment of Risk 

Petra’s identified key values—heritage, economic, and natural—are affected to varying degrees by climate hazards such as flash floods, drought, sandstorms, and increased storminess:

• Heritage Values Petra’s iconic rock-carved monuments and archaeological sites face low to moderate risk, primarily from flash floods and erosion. Existing adaptation measures, including flood protection systems and improved water management, have significantly reduced vulnerability, making heritage values among the best protected.
• Economic Values – Tourism Tourism, a major economic driver for the local community, faces moderate risk, particularly from flooding, sandstorms, and drought. Over-tourism and aging infrastructure heighten these risks, though investments in infrastructure, water systems, and community engagement help offset impacts.
• Economic Values – Agriculture Agriculture, vital to local livelihoods and cultural identity, also faces moderate risk, particularly from drought and flooding. Reviving traditional wells and water systems are helping to reduce this vulnerability.
• Natural Values Petra’s natural environment—including its geological features, flora, and fauna—is at the greatest risk, ranging from moderate to extreme. Climate change has driven biodiversity loss and ecological degradation. While adaptation measures have been more effective for cultural heritage, they have had limited impact on natural systems.

‍Overall, Petra faces a moderate level of risk with resilience bolstered by effective adaptation efforts, especially for its cultural heritage. However, natural and agricultural values remain more vulnerable, underscoring the need for sustained, coordinated efforts to safeguard Petra’s diverse and interdependent attributes for future generations.

Next Steps

The climate custodians who led this assessment as part of their participation in the Preserving Legacies cohort program will continue to the next phase of implementing an adaptation action for monitoring, evaluating, iterating, and scaling. Recommended actions include reinforcing traditional flood control systems, integrating heritage conservation into urban development, and continuing community-led monitoring. Future efforts should expand cross-sector collaboration and secure sustainable funding for climate adaptation in Petra. 

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